Sun/Clouds/Warm Tuesday, Late Wednesday Severe Risk


Tuesday morning featured more sunshine than Monday morning. Plus, Tuesday morning clouds did not produce rain in central or south Alabama. Thanks to some sunlight, temperatures rose into the mid to upper 70s by midday. Afternoon temperatures peak in the low to mid 80s, while the sky remains partly cloudy. A few showers appear possible, but the rain chance and coverage looks MUCH lower Tuesday compared to Monday.

Tuesday night looks mostly cloudy and mild with lows in the low to mid 60s. Much of Wednesday look very similar to Tuesday. Some sunshine mixes with clouds by the afternoon, and temperatures peak in the low to mid 80s. Through mid to late afternoon, the rain chance looks very small. However, some potential remains for strong to severe storms late Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

Although, the risk level looks much lower than recent severe weather events in our area. The hotspot for severe weather Wednesday appears to be across the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Storms impact those areas during the day, with more instability in play. The storm prediction center places an enhanced (level 3/5) risk across those areas.

Meanwhile, the severe risk lowers to slight (2/5) east to approximately I-65 in Alabama, to Marginal (1/5) east of I-65. Storms probably won’t arrive in west Alabama until mid to late Wednesday evening. By that time, daytime instability wanes, and continues to do so as storms move east through the rest of our area Wednesday night. Plus, other severe ingredients may diminish/depart our area with time Wednesday night.

With that being said, we can’t write off the potential for at least a few severe storms in our area Wednesday night. At least a low-end risk for tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail exists across all of central and south Alabama between at least 10PM Wednesday evening and 6AM Thursday morning. Be weather aware. Storms tapers off Thursday morning, and some sunshine returns by Thursday afternoon as a front pushes to our southeast. Afternoon temperatures peak near 80°.

Thursday night lows fall into the 50s, perhaps 40s for some in the wake of the front. The front remains to our south much of Friday. That results in a very low rain chance, with a mix of sun and clouds. However, the front doesn’t stay to our south for long. It stalls along the north gulf coastline, then lifts north as a warm front Easter weekend. That means scattered showers and some storms both Saturday and Sunday.

It won’t rain everywhere at all times during the weekend. However, both Saturday and Sunday feature decently high rain chances. Otherwise, both days look warm and humid with highs near 80°, and lows near 60°. Some showers and storms remain possible Easter Monday. It appears another cold front pushes through our area at some point during the day. That could set the stage for cooler and drier weather next Tuesday, and perhaps much of next week.

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